National House prices fell 2.3% in January

 

Integrated Asset Services®, LLC (IAS®) (www.iasreo.com), a leader in default management and residential collateral valuations, released the latest IAS360® House Price Index (HPI). Based upon the timeliest and most granular data available in the industry, the index for national house prices fell 2.3% in January.

Unusually severe winter weather in large regions of the country may have added to the housing market's woes, most likely in the Midwest where prices dropped another 2.6% for the month, this following a similar drop in December. The region, which includes hard-hit states like Illinois (-4.9%), Missouri (-4.4%), and Minnesota (-3.5%) has now given back all of its 2009 gains.

All four of the U.S. census regions fell in January. For the month, the Northeast slipped another 0.5%, the South 2.2%, mostly the result of double-digit declines in Georgia and Alabama, and the West 2.6%. The collective damage -- the largest single-month decline in the IAS360 in over a year -- left the index down some 30% from its high in mid-2007.

"It's clear the housing market is struggling to rebound on just about every level," said Dave McCarthy, President and CEO of Integrated Asset Services. "We're looking at the most granular data available in the industry, and it would appear the housing recovery is going to be more prolonged than originally anticipated."

Beyond that there remains the ongoing concern over the number of repossessed homes lenders are holding back from the market, the so-called "shadow inventory." The ultimate liquidation of what by most estimates is somewhere between two and seven million houses has the potential to drive down home values in neighborhoods around the country. McCarthy believes this hidden supply could take several years to clear from the national inventory.

"The potential for a whole new wave of distressed activity down the road is very likely," says McCarthy. "I still believe the risk of further weakening in home values is considerable."

The IAS360 uses "next-generation" trending methodology to identify market trends earlier than any other index. IAS data includes non-conforming, bank-owned, and conventional sales transactions segmented by property type in addition to those insured by the FHA and VA. The IAS360 also considers REO transactions along with arms-length transactions. The index is published weeks earlier than competing HPIs and refreshes historical trends as new data becomes available. The IAS360 is designed to report changes when they happen for the most accurate and useful view of the U.S. housing market.

Integrated Asset Services offers full service, end-to-end mortgage service solutions including valuation and data analytics. The company's i-Series® collateral valuation platform (http://www.iasreo.com/iseries.html) delivers a comprehensive combination of collateral valuation services that individually offer distinct and critical data, and when combined, a complete view of market volatility, local expert opinions and subject value. Its data analytics provide vital data on the U.S. residential housing market.

Editor's note: IAS360 HPI data, charts, and interviews are available upon request. Data for 2008 and since the peak of 2006 are available at levels from national to MSA to neighborhood for a fee.